Some EM currencies are performing very well against the USD. This is the case, for example, with the South African ZAR, and even more so with South American currencies such as the Mexican peso (MXN) and the Brazilian real (BRL). The peso has returned to levels very close to those seen in 2023 and early […]
Despite weaker growth, lower interest rates, and softer year-on-year inflation, the euro remains relatively strong against the US dollar, holding at elevated levels not seen for several years prior to recent months, broadly between 1.14 and 1.15. The current exchange rate around 1.1740 reinforces this strength. This resilience may reflect expectations that the European Central […]
The AUDCHF pair has maintained a sustained upward trajectory since Q4 2025, supported by a clear divergence in monetary policy. The Swiss franc’s strength in 2025—appreciating approximately 12.7% against the US dollar—has contributed to deflationary pressure in Switzerland, prompting the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to maintain an accommodative stance. With policy rates at 0% and […]
The USD—as represented by the USDIDX—has returned close to levels observed prior to the onset of the Middle East conflict. It is currently trading at 98.10, compared to a closing level of 97.60 on Friday, February 27, representing a difference of approximately 0.5%. This remains significantly below the intraday high of 100.50 reached on March […]
Since this morning, markets have remained relatively calm ahead of the start of peace talks in Pakistan. This provides an opportunity to examine a slightly different instrument that may present trading interest during this period: the Norwegian krone (NOK). Norway’s economy maintains one of the most direct and transparent linkages between a sovereign currency and […]
The OECD’s latest economic outlook, published on March 26, delivered a stark verdict on the UK who received the biggest downgrade to its 2026 growth forecast among all major OECD member countries, with GDP growth now projected at just 0.7% for the year, down 0.5% from a previous estimate of 1.2%. The downgrade reflects the […]
At its March 19, 2026 monetary policy meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left the official rate unchanged at 0.00%, maintaining its ultra-low-rate stance amid subdued inflation and a still-elevated Swiss franc. The Bank reiterated that sight deposits at the SNB would continue to be remunerated at the policy rate up to a certain threshold, […]
The Bank of Japan on Thursday kept its rates steady at 0.75%, as expected, but noted that inflation risks are now tilted to the upside due to the Iran war. The decision was split, with eight of the nine members voting in favour of a hold and only Hajime Takata proposing a rate hike to […]
In the next 48 hours, all the major central banks in the world will meet and decide the next steps in their respective monetary policies, after the Australian RBA once again raised its benchmark rate on Tuesday morning. It starts in a few hours with the Bank of Canada, followed by the Fed, then BOJ, […]
There is a second major shift—the first is obviously the oil shock—produced by the current crisis in the Middle East: the policy outlook of the major global central banks has changed rapidly, and this is something we will discuss in greater depth later this week. The discussion is no longer only about accommodative policy and […]
